The real fun begins now. WIth after a month of intense speculations and opinion polls, here comes the next best thing to actual results on 16th - the exit polls for all 543 seats from different News Channels. Although, almost all show a Congress lead, but BJP is shown to lag not far behind. In this neck and neck race, wait till the 16th of May to checkout the real big picture.
Times Now National projection: The UPA ahead of NDA
The Congress-led UPA has been projected to have an edge over NDA and others in the Lok Sabhaelections which are expected to produce a highly-fractured verdict, according to the The Times Of India projection of the outcome of the 2009 Lok Sabha polls.
According to the TOI projection shown exclusively on TIMES NOW , UPA is likely to win 198 seats, the NDA 183, the Third Front 112 seats. The Congress is likely to get 154 seats, while the other UPA constituents could get around 44. In BJP, on the other hand, is likely to get 142 seats, while other parties in the NDA are likely to get 41 seats. In the Third Front, Left parties are projeced to bag 38 seats, BSP 27, AIADMK+ 24, TDP+ 20 and the JD(S) 3. The SP is pegged to get 23 seats, BJD 8, RJD+LJP 6, PRP 4, AUDG 1, SDF 1, NPF 1, HJC 1, JMM 2 and independents are projected to get about 3 seats.
That means that while Congress and BJP lose out a few seats from their 2004 performance, neither has a clear shot at forming the government 272 being the majority mark. Mayawati's BSP, which has been projected to win about 28 seats as well as the AIADMK+ with about 23 seats could well end up holding the key to the government formation.
The state-wise TOI projection is as under:
BIHAR: 40 SEATS
CONG 3 NCP 1 BJP 10 JD(U)19 LEFT 1 RJD 4 LJP 2
ASSAM: 14 SEATS
CONG 5 BPF 1 BJP 4 AGP 3 LEFT 0 AUDF 1
NORTH EAST: 10 SEATS (MEGHALAYA, MANIPUR, MIZORAM, TRIPURA, NAGALAND,SIKKIM)
CONG 4 NCP 1 BJP 0 LEFT 2 NPF 1 SF 1
MADHYA PRADESH: 29 SEATS
CONG 6 BJP 23
GUJARAT: 26 SEATS
CONG 7 BJP 19
RAJASTHAN: 25 SEATS
CONG 12 BJP 11 IND 2
ORISSA: 21 SEATS
CONG 9 BJP 4 BJD 8
PUNJAB: 13 SEATS
CONG 9 BJP 1 SAD 3
KERALA: 20 SEATS
CONG 12 IUML 2 KC(M) 1 LEFT 5
KARNATAKA: 28 SEATS
CONG 9 BJP 16 JD(S) 3
MAHARASHTRA: 48 SEATS
CONG 12 NCP 11 BJP 13 SHS 12
UTTAR PRADESH: 80 SEATS
CONG 13 BJP 14 RLD 3 BSP 28 SP 22
WEST BENGAL: 42 SEATS
CONG 5 TMC 11 BJP 1 LEFT 24 SUCI 1
TAMIL NADU: 39 SEATS
CONG 4, DMK 7, BJP 1, LEFT 4 AIADMK+23
6th May - Times of India Result estimates after Phase Three:
Times of India suggests that BJP led NDA is catching up fast with its latest seat estimate for the elections. As compared to 176 in the last polls of 10th April, it now gives NDA an edge with 187 seats, just 8 behind the Congress led UPA. If you look at the figures closely, you'd realise the irony - just three Indian states basically decide the fate of this Lok Sabha: Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh. It is well clear that neither BJP nor Congress led coalitions yet seem to be in a position to form the Govt on their own. The others and third front get majority of its seats from these three states, and they are the one's who'd decide who forms the next Govt.
Star News - Nielsen Opinion Polls:
Star News & Nielsen came out with their second opinion polls, made from data collected till 3rd of April. It must be kept in mind that a week has since passed and recent activities, such as the shoe throwing incident, removal of Jagdish ytler and Sajjan Kumar from contest, etc are bound to have some impact. However, one thing strikes out and that is that today's poll compares similar to the poll by Times of India which came out on 10th April(shown below). Both show Congress getting near to 155 seats and overall tally of UPA to be around 200 seats.
As compared from it's own previous poll on 23rd March, Star News-Nielsen shows a slight decline in the numbers of UPA, although individual tally of Congress is showed to increase from 144 to 155. In comparison, NDA is set to increase it's tally, mainly because of increase in seats to the BJP, from being at 137 to now 147. The third front, although still going no where, is said to increase its tally from 96 to 104.
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